A quick show of hands – who actually thinks Labour could win the Scottish Parliament elections?

No one?

Ok, hands up those who think Labour might increase their number of seats.

Maintain their seats? No-one?

You’re not alone. The fact is that any serious analysis of Labour’s election prospects north of the border suggests a party that will suffer major losses in May. Perhaps not wiped out like they very nearly were in May 2015, but at least so badly damaged that the Conservatives, so long vilified in Scotland, believe they have a genuine chance of becoming the main opposition party.

But, bizarrely, Labour’s woes may actually prove to be a bigger headache for Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP than for Kezia Dugdale. Could the SNP be undone by their own success?

Dugdale’s task as Labour leader is fairly clear. Make the best of a bad hand in May and then set about rebuilding the Scottish Labour Party for the battles ahead in 2020 and 2021.

Nicola Sturgeon, who launched the SNP’s Scottish election manifesto this morning, has an altogether trickier task. She needs to tackle complacency.

With polls putting the SNP between 30 and 40 points ahead of their rivals, the great fear of the leadership is that SNP supporters, confident in a whitewash, won’t even bother turning out to vote. Indeed, canvassers in many areas have reported low voter engagement with the election, an issue unlikely to be helped by claims from Ruth Davison, Scottish Conservative leader, that the election is simply a battle for second place.

It would unreasonable to think that this could possibly jeopardise the SNP’s overall victory; that same apathy is as, if not more, likely to afflict Labour voters. But it does pose a particular problem for the SNP.

Sturgeon has already stated that the SNP’s campaign for a second independence referendum begins this summer. But to even begin to call for a second referendum, the SNP need to show overwhelming support for their policies and/or a change in circumstances that makes it possible to argue that the result from 2014 should no longer stand. The SNP have already made clear that a Brexit from the EU would fulfil the latter condition.

But the first of those criteria – overwhelming support – relies on a high turnout and a landslide victory in May’s Scottish Parliament election.

The complacency amongst their supporters which the SNP are so concerned about risks that turnout, risks that landslide and therefore risk a second referendum.